https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance
Look at the real numbers the the phoney hype generated by the media
outlaw40 said
08:13 AM Apr 11, 2020
Those figures look the same as what i am seeing in the news . whats the phoney media hype you speak of Gundog ?
Gundog said
08:22 AM Apr 11, 2020
Look at the actual numbers not the cumulative with approximatly 3000 still infected, now look at the actual number in hospital.
New this morning still reporting over 6000 Covid19 cases, easy to scare people with less than truthful facts.
Mariner30 said
08:24 AM Apr 11, 2020
Nit picking.
Just stay home.
outlaw40 said
08:46 AM Apr 11, 2020
Scarring people into staying home is what needs to happen so in this case the perceived media hype is a good thing .
Whenarewethere said
09:03 AM Apr 11, 2020
People have to stay in isolation a lot longer than simply the two weeks. So numbers will appear high. But you need to make sure people are actually free of the virus before they are let loose. Otherwise it is a pointless exercise keeping people in isolation.
dorian said
09:39 AM Apr 11, 2020
I would think that the actual numbers would always be underreported because asymptomatic people are not being tested.
South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being reinfected.
South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections, with epidemiological investigations still underway.
The Belmont Bear said
03:13 PM Apr 11, 2020
Unless I'm missing something I can't see any misreporting - there have been a total of over 6,000 cases in Australia and around 3000 have apparently now recovered (the majority of people who test positive don't end up in a hospital). As dorian pointed out the actual number may be a lot higher than what these figures indicate as asymptomatic people are not tested so no one can say with any certainty how many have had or are currently carrying the virus. Although the lag indicators are interesting the only number that I take any notice of are the number of new infections being reported each day because that is what the government will use to decide when this pandemic is under control and when the restrictions can be eased..
Cheers
BB
Izabarack said
03:35 PM Apr 11, 2020
Gundog wrote:
...... the phoney hype generated by the media
Guess I must have missed that. Very consistent reporting by the media going by what I have seen. Contrast that to the extreme bias in reporting on US TV and in their papers. As said above, I am most interested in the number of new cases found each day. If the curve is flattening, much easier to convince people doing the right thing to do more of the right thing.
Iza
markf said
04:52 PM Apr 11, 2020
A statistician mate reckons the problem with the reported numbers is that they are inaccurate and can only be accurate if everyone is tested every day which is clearly impossible. All the whizz bang models that are being run are based on known data which may, or may not, be accurate.
I reckon the last job I'd want at the moment is as a statistician with government. There'd be too many people demanding definitive answers based on incomplete or skewed data.
Just for fun the biases of the media are added to the mix. As Mark Twain once said "facts are stubborn things but statistics are pliable....
Greg 1 said
05:57 PM Apr 11, 2020
Gundog from a couple of topics you have posted on this subject you seem to believe that there is some sort of conspiracy here.
You really need to put your tin foil hat back on and get back on your meds if that is what you think.
No government is going to shut the entire country down without extremely good reason, never mind the world.
There isn't any conspiracy, just a very nasty virus, so we just need to suck it up, do what we are told and get through this thing.
bgt said
06:24 PM Apr 11, 2020
All the numbers are available. All you have to do is look and find the numbers that matter to you.
Whenarewethere said
07:26 PM Apr 11, 2020
The Trump administration declined to use a nearly 70-page pandemic preparedness playbook created by the National Security Council's health unit during the Obama administration, Politico reported.
Gundog I must have missed something. What are you on about?
JayDee said
08:48 AM Apr 12, 2020
I Certainly would put money on the Australian facts rather than those suspicious numbers coming out of China and Russia etc.
I think we are in for another 4 to 6 months of this isolation. Even if a vaccine is developed it will take months of testing before we can get a jab.
We can not afford to lift the isolation until everyone as free of the virus. One person with the virus will start it all over again, me thinks.
Jay&Dee
Gundog said
08:51 AM Apr 12, 2020
Ger08 what you are missing is the hype and miss reporting are make people scared without just cause.
As of yesterday 240 people with Covid19 are in hospital of them 80 are in ICU, we are mislead that the hospital system is stretched to the limit, there's a shortage of ventilators etc etc.
One would suggest emergency departments at hospitals and medical clinics are overrun by people panicking insisting they need to be tested for no real reason other than fear, thus preventing people who actually need medical appointments to get them. Case in point my partner requires follow up tests for a condition, but she cannot get an appointment to get a referral for a CT and Ultrasound.
Now how many hospitals are there in Australia, how many ICU beds, how many ventilators, simply put, there are more than 240/80.
Facts are people's businesses have and are being destroyed by the overreaction, many people who lost their job, will never get their jobs back.
Mariner30 said
09:02 AM Apr 12, 2020
Gundog wrote:
, many people who lost their job, will never get their jobs back.
And many people have lost their lives and WILL NEVER get those back,
Just stay at home.
Ger08 said
09:04 AM Apr 12, 2020
Gundo, I think you miss the point. We as a nation have acted swiftly and decisively to minimise the effects of the virus. All state governments and the federal government have stated that we have flattened the curve far better than they thought possible. Look at the countries that didnt prepare properly, Italy, Span, UK, USA. I think you have failed to grasp the serious situation we faced
Greystone said
10:33 AM Apr 12, 2020
The reason you can't get non essential consultations is that the authorities have reserved all hospital capacity for the covid19 peak that was to occur in the next couple of weeks. I think that's good planning and good emergency preparedness. Not an over reaction!
Kebbin said
11:15 AM Apr 12, 2020
Your a dangerous man Gundog AKA murray_cod why were you given a holiday from the other forum? Yes for the same misinformation you are giving here. Your way of thinking as a self admitted conspiracy theorist is flawed you need to expand you knowledge base and explore other sources.
What would happen if there were no controls at this time? We would have run out of ventilators in many hospitals by now that's what. Reportedly 2300 Ventilators in Australia 693 Public Hospitals mainly small so do the maths. You fail to realise that there are many thousands in hospitals year round needing care. A crisis such as this puts a huge strain on hospitals medical personnel and resources.
You travelled extensively during the No Non Essential Travel period from your southern location to Proserpine your choice of a Winter location.
Now your blaming others because your wife cannot get an appointment, you were warned time and again about Country/Regional towns may be overwhelmed medically wise because of what was to come.
You argued there was no evidence of such and they needed your support, indeed they thanked you for your support.
I do hope that your wife doesn't need critical care and gets her referrals as she seems to be having a rough trot. There are many in every community hoping that care will be available when it is needed but there is no guarantee during this crisis.
Tony Bev said
11:26 AM Apr 12, 2020
Greystone wrote:
The reason you can't get non essential consultations is that the authorities have reserved all hospital capacity for the covid19 peak that was to occur in the next couple of weeks. I think that's good planning and good emergency preparedness. Not an over reaction!
Agree Greystone, x 2
SouthernComfort said
11:30 AM Apr 12, 2020
I agree with "just stay at home", we're doing just that except for food. The nation basically has the right strategy, the states confuse things somewhat with their different rules.
In Vic we're only meant to be out for essentials being food, medical, work or compassionate reasons. Exercise on foot, i.e. not driving to parks etc. What I can't understand is that on our way to the supermarket we pass Bunnings and their car park is always at least 50% full. Also heaps of traffic on the road all day every day, particularly on the main arterial near us - is all of it essential travel??
dogbox said
11:54 AM Apr 12, 2020
Kebbin wrote:
Your a dangerous man Gundog AKA murray_cod why were you given a holiday from the other forum? Yes for the same misinformation you are giving here. Your way of thinking as a self admitted conspiracy theorist is flawed you need to expand you knowledge base and explore other sources.
What would happen if there were no controls at this time? We would have run out of ventilators in many hospitals by now that's what. Reportedly 2300 Ventilators in Australia 693 Public Hospitals mainly small so do the maths. You fail to realise that there are many thousands in hospitals year round needing care. A crisis such as this puts a huge strain on hospitals medical personnel and resources.
You travelled extensively during the No Non Essential Travel period from your southern location to Proserpine your choice of a Winter location.
Now your blaming others because your wife cannot get an appointment, you were warned time and again about Country/Regional towns may be overwhelmed medically wise because of what was to come.
You argued there was no evidence of such and they needed your support, indeed they thanked you for your support.
I do hope that your wife doesn't need critical care and gets her referrals as she seems to be having a rough trot. There are many in every community hoping that care will be available when it is needed but there is no guarantee during this crisis.
gundog AKA murrycod (i hope the connection is right ) has a vested interest as they require medical attention (didn't specify life threatening) so it has been postponed for the foreseeable future the hospitals are gearing up for a potential flood of patients that may never happen if our government has acted quick enough to avoid the situation we are hearing about overseas
Gundog said
11:59 AM Apr 12, 2020
Yes for the same misinformation you are giving here. Your way of thinking as a self admitted conspiracy theorist is flawed you need to expand you knowledge base and explore other sources.
My source is the federal dept of health, which now provides a daily snapshot of the actual numbers in hospital and those in ICU these are the facts pertaining to Australia.
And just to clear up any misunderstanding it's our doctor that we cannot access to because of the panic created in the community.
Tony Bev said
12:11 PM Apr 12, 2020
Not trying to derail this thread, just giving some information
I only usually see the doctor, when I am due a flu shot, or the bit of paper, for a PSA blood test
Had the blood test, so rang for an appointment for the flu shot
The appointed time was a telephone conference, the flu shot will now be, a drive through, where at an appointed time, I will present myself in the doctors car park
My home base is the South West region, of Western Australia
I will assume, that the new norm, is now to access the Doctor by phone, (so the the Doctor does not catch the virus, off a patient)
Mariner30 said
12:23 PM Apr 12, 2020
It's the same here in this small east coast Tas town,
BEFORE these restrictions came in a appointment was two weeks at least, except for urgent cases of course,
They are doing phone consultations for scripts, scan results etc etc
Wait in the carpark etc etc
NOT taking any new patients atm
There is ONE old fella here who is stuck in his tiny camper untill restrictions on non essential travel lift?
No caravan parks etc etc free camps open...his old nissan urvan is his home
i have been referred to as being naive and/or stupid but can you explain where the conspiracy theory idea is coming from as i read it our government has imposed restrictions on contact and travel, if those restriction are successful the restrictions will be toned down at a rate that hopefully will not to overload our health system as has happened overseas . if they have over reacted that has to be better than under reacting
HandyWalter said
02:54 PM Apr 12, 2020
What i found interesting INITIALLY was that the media only reported the total cumulative number of new cases reported. So of course the number just kept going up (and it still does). Noone was reporting just the number of new cases each day that initially went up and then has been on a downward trend for the past week or so. So there we have 2 statistical graphs which show clearly opposite curve lines. The other issue with all of this is the number of tests being done, and the strike rate of Virus found per test done. This can also be "distorted". If I test 100 people randomly, I might find one person infected. If I only test 100 people with ALL the symptoms of the virus I might get a figure of say 20. So when we see figures of tests done we need to know if the criteria to decide to test is the same in every country or not. I can make stats do anything to support any action I want to take. Ie i can use algebra to make 1 = 2. or infact any number if I go on long enough. So everybody uses stats to suit the stance they want to take. Its how we as a population interprets these and then the public take a stand based on that. Ie some say its over reaction, others have no idea, and some say the worst is yet to come.
-- Edited by HandyWalter on Sunday 12th of April 2020 06:20:57 PM
Gundog said
03:16 PM Apr 12, 2020
HandyWalter well said.
Reality is there are less than 3000 people that have a positive test for the virus, over 50% less the the media reports.
Just stay home.
People have to stay in isolation a lot longer than simply the two weeks. So numbers will appear high. But you need to make sure people are actually free of the virus before they are let loose. Otherwise it is a pointless exercise keeping people in isolation.
I would think that the actual numbers would always be underreported because asymptomatic people are not being tested.
This development is scary:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-11/coronavirus-update-australia-covid19-death-toll-100k-boris-walks/12141470
South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being reinfected.
South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections, with epidemiological investigations still underway.
Unless I'm missing something I can't see any misreporting - there have been a total of over 6,000 cases in Australia and around 3000 have apparently now recovered (the majority of people who test positive don't end up in a hospital). As dorian pointed out the actual number may be a lot higher than what these figures indicate as asymptomatic people are not tested so no one can say with any certainty how many have had or are currently carrying the virus. Although the lag indicators are interesting the only number that I take any notice of are the number of new infections being reported each day because that is what the government will use to decide when this pandemic is under control and when the restrictions can be eased..
Cheers
BB
Guess I must have missed that. Very consistent reporting by the media going by what I have seen. Contrast that to the extreme bias in reporting on US TV and in their papers. As said above, I am most interested in the number of new cases found each day. If the curve is flattening, much easier to convince people doing the right thing to do more of the right thing.
Iza
A statistician mate reckons the problem with the reported numbers is that they are inaccurate and can only be accurate if everyone is tested every day which is clearly impossible. All the whizz bang models that are being run are based on known data which may, or may not, be accurate.
I reckon the last job I'd want at the moment is as a statistician with government. There'd be too many people demanding definitive answers based on incomplete or skewed data.
Just for fun the biases of the media are added to the mix. As Mark Twain once said "facts are stubborn things but statistics are pliable....
The Trump administration declined to use a nearly 70-page pandemic preparedness playbook created by the National Security Council's health unit during the Obama administration, Politico reported.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/trump-admin-ignored-obama-era-nsc-pandemic-prep-document-politico-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
I Certainly would put money on the Australian facts rather than those suspicious numbers coming out of China and Russia etc.
I think we are in for another 4 to 6 months of this isolation. Even if a vaccine is developed it will take months of testing before we can get a jab.
We can not afford to lift the isolation until everyone as free of the virus. One person with the virus will start it all over again, me thinks.
Jay&Dee
And many people have lost their lives and WILL NEVER get those back,
Just stay at home.
Gundo, I think you miss the point. We as a nation have acted swiftly and decisively to minimise the effects of the virus. All state governments and the federal government have stated that we have flattened the curve far better than they thought possible. Look at the countries that didnt prepare properly, Italy, Span, UK, USA. I think you have failed to grasp the serious situation we faced
What would happen if there were no controls at this time? We would have run out of ventilators in many hospitals by now that's what. Reportedly 2300 Ventilators in Australia 693 Public Hospitals mainly small so do the maths. You fail to realise that there are many thousands in hospitals year round needing care. A crisis such as this puts a huge strain on hospitals medical personnel and resources.
You travelled extensively during the No Non Essential Travel period from your southern location to Proserpine your choice of a Winter location.
Now your blaming others because your wife cannot get an appointment, you were warned time and again about Country/Regional towns may be overwhelmed medically wise because of what was to come.
You argued there was no evidence of such and they needed your support, indeed they thanked you for your support.
I do hope that your wife doesn't need critical care and gets her referrals as she seems to be having a rough trot. There are many in every community hoping that care will be available when it is needed but there is no guarantee during this crisis.
Agree Greystone, x 2
I agree with "just stay at home", we're doing just that except for food. The nation basically has the right strategy, the states confuse things somewhat with their different rules.
In Vic we're only meant to be out for essentials being food, medical, work or compassionate reasons. Exercise on foot, i.e. not driving to parks etc. What I can't understand is that on our way to the supermarket we pass Bunnings and their car park is always at least 50% full. Also heaps of traffic on the road all day every day, particularly on the main arterial near us - is all of it essential travel??
gundog AKA murrycod (i hope the connection is right ) has a vested interest as they require medical attention (didn't specify life threatening)
so it has been postponed for the foreseeable future
the hospitals are gearing up for a potential flood of patients that may never happen if our government has acted quick enough to avoid the situation we are hearing about overseas
I only usually see the doctor, when I am due a flu shot, or the bit of paper, for a PSA blood test
Had the blood test, so rang for an appointment for the flu shot
The appointed time was a telephone conference, the flu shot will now be, a drive through, where at an appointed time, I will present myself in the doctors car park
My home base is the South West region, of Western Australia
I will assume, that the new norm, is now to access the Doctor by phone, (so the the Doctor does not catch the virus, off a patient)
i have been referred to as being naive and/or stupid but can you explain where the conspiracy theory idea is coming from as i read it our government has imposed restrictions on contact and travel, if those restriction are successful the restrictions will be toned down at a rate that hopefully will not to overload our health system as has happened overseas .
if they have over reacted that has to be better than under reacting
What i found interesting INITIALLY was that the media only reported the total cumulative number of new cases reported. So of course the number just kept going up (and it still does). Noone was reporting just the number of new cases each day that initially went up and then has been on a downward trend for the past week or so. So there we have 2 statistical graphs which show clearly opposite curve lines. The other issue with all of this is the number of tests being done, and the strike rate of Virus found per test done. This can also be "distorted". If I test 100 people randomly, I might find one person infected. If I only test 100 people with ALL the symptoms of the virus I might get a figure of say 20. So when we see figures of tests done we need to know if the criteria to decide to test is the same in every country or not. I can make stats do anything to support any action I want to take. Ie i can use algebra to make 1 = 2. or infact any number if I go on long enough. So everybody uses stats to suit the stance they want to take. Its how we as a population interprets these and then the public take a stand based on that. Ie some say its over reaction, others have no idea, and some say the worst is yet to come.
-- Edited by HandyWalter on Sunday 12th of April 2020 06:20:57 PM