Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

bill12 · Guru

Coming South

jules47 · The Happy Helper

Enjoy Bill!!

GaryKelly · Guru

Yep, humidity knocks me around. I'll be avoiding the northern climes when I hit the road, and even coastal areas south if the humdiddity is too high. Seeya when ya waddle into town, Bill. I might even shout you a beer if I'm feeling generous.

bill12 · Guru

I will be in around Brisbane til the Cowboys trialgame on the 8th Feb, and then head further south.Will contact you when I,m down your way. See Ya soon, Bill

yeoeleven · Guru

Keep us posted Bill, Rod and I plan to be at the southern end of the Mt Lindsay Highway around then.

John

Big Gorilla · Guru

Nothing showing up on the weather web sites as yet.

bill12 · Guru

Go to Bom sites and put in wind forcast for a week ahead.Its out near the Solomens at the moment, embedded in the monsoon trough.Thursday here is forcast to 50 knots. Weatherzone coastal forcast for the tropicalcoast is good , also.I will try to get south before it approaches the coast.See ya soon. Bill

Big Gorilla · Guru

Yes there is a low pressure system off the north Qld. coast but it hasn't formed into a cyclone. It might or might not. I monitor the U. S. Military weather station in Hawaii. It is very reliable and issues forecasts worldwide for U. S. Airforce and Navy. At present it is not showing a cyclone off north Qld. Of course, with all weather prognosis, that could alter in the next hour.

bill12 · Guru

Well, I,m not staying to find out. Cooler, and less windy climes for me. I will keep myeyes on the low as it ambles about the Coral sea. Bill

kandagal · Guru

The wind has been strong enough over the last few days (in Maroochydore & now at Dickabram Bridge) to stop us from putting our sat dish up.

Big Gorilla · Guru

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bill12 · Guru

What does all that mean? You just have to watch the news on tv to know there will be a cyclone forming in the Coral sea by Wednesday. There is gale warning for the tropical coast and its blowing over 30 plus knots right down to Rocky.Its blowing 42knots at HamiltonIs. in the Whitsundays right now. I will have a great time heading south against strong winds. Maybe the yanks should ask someone on the ground.
You only have to walk outside to see how windy it is. Bill

-- Edited by bill12 on Monday 27th of January 2014 08:52:42 PM

Big Gorilla · Guru

If you have more confidence in BOM than the Yanks, check this:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/?ref=ftr

As i said below, weather can change in an instant. !! biggrin biggrin And read my message below again. I'm sure there are strong winds, whether it will turn into a Cyclone has not yet been determined. I certainly hope it doesn't for all the people in the area.

bill12 · Guru

So you are telling me , after 40 years plus of living in Nth QLD,I don,t know when a cyclone is brewing on my doorstep.I have been using the BOM sites for over 20 years in running my charter business , and would trust them more than someone 12000 miles away.Who cares whether is been given a name or not, its blowing a gale here , will probably form and cross the coast somewhere close.Going South! Today. Bill

Big Gorilla · Guru

No Bill, I'm not saying that at all. What I am saying is that a Cyclone has not yet been declared.. I respect your knowledge from living in the area and of running a charter business. I also have good knowledge of meteorology from my days in aviation. Let's wait and see what happens.

Marine Wind Warning Summary

IDQ20085

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Updated Marine Wind Warning Summary for Queensland

Issued at 4:47 am EST on Tuesday 28 January 2014
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 29 January 2014.

Wind Warnings for Tuesday 28 January

Gale Warning for the following areas:
Cairns Coast, Townsville Coast, Mackay Coast and Capricornia Coast

Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Torres Strait, Cooktown Coast, Hervey Bay, Fraser Island Coast and Sunshine Coast Waters

Wind Warnings for Wednesday 29 January

Gale Warning for the following areas:
Cooktown Coast, Cairns Coast and Townsville Coast

Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
North East Gulf of Carpentaria, Torres Strait, Peninsula Coast, Mackay Coast, Capricornia Coast and Fraser Island Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 3:50 pm EST Tuesday.

Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local Waters Forecast for information on wind, wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.

-- Edited by Big Gorilla on Tuesday 28th of January 2014 07:32:04 AM

GaryKelly · Guru

In my old radio days, I used to wet my index finger and stick it out the studio window when I did a weather report. biggrin

Big Gorilla · Guru

bill12 · Guru

Have a read of this

bill12 · Guru

I am down at Bloomsbury, having lunch, after visiting the uncle in Blowen. Very windy on the way down, up the 30knots at times, and just about blowing me off the road.Severe weather warning from the weather bureau right down to Mackay. Will take a slow drive down to Carmila beach. or Clairview for the night. Will post when I get there.Fair bit of rain ,also. The new truck is going well , with 7klms per litre, towing a 3.7m boat and trailer. Not bad. Bill

Big Gorilla · Guru

Yeah it's not looking good. Might be prudent for those in the north contemplating heading south to divert westward. Tomorrow might give a better picture of which way the system develops and the direction it moves in. Usually these systems move south.

bill12 · Guru

At Waverly creek, after spending the night at Carmila. No internet and 1 bar on the phone at Carmila. Waverly better with nice toilets.Will have breakfast and a wash , and head further south. Stll windy, but has dropped some. Will have a look at Turkey beach today. good trip south, so far.Willpost at Turkey beach. Bill

bill12 · Guru

At Turkey beach.A pretty little coastal town between Gladstone and 1770/Agnes waters.Dead low tide at the moment, and lots of sandbanks and rocks atbit out from the aprk.There is a boat ramp and toilets, which aren,tin vey good condition. The male showers are smashed, but everything is clean.Good internet and phone. Will try the tv.Stillblowing a gale.Might go on to 1770, and Workmans beach.Will post later. Bill

bill12 · Guru

Am at Workmans beach, and looking at the cyclone charts ,it doesn,t look good . Loooks as though it will come ashoreas a cat 1 , just south of Townsville,on the highest tide of the year.Wehave been lucky over the years, and they have never come ashore on a high tide,let alone the highest tide,of the year, and add the storm surge.Should only be a cat 1, 60 knots orso, but the beaches, and foreshores will be damaged.Willhave to contact fiends on Mgnetic island.Bugga! Bill

cooee · Senior Member

Hi Bill

Good on you for such quick thinking and getting moving so quickly.

I hope you are safely out of harms way now.

Cooee

Big Gorilla · Guru

I hope al will be ok for your property at Magnetic Island. Wave height is estimated at 10 feet....

bill12 · Guru

My property and boat are 700m back from the beach and 13m high,on a gps, so I don,t think I will have any problems.The shops and houses on the esplanade are a different story. I phoned H,shoe bay store and while the tide is very high at the moment, it hasn,t crossed the road. There are a few trees down on the waters edge.Tommorrows tide will be the one. The low should cross the coast at about 4am, and the highest tide of the year is at 8.30am. Will ring them tmrow. Hope there is not too much damage.The Townsvill mayor, Jenny Hill was supposed to come and look at prior damage on Friday, but I think she will be too busy. She will have plenty to look at after the blow.1770 , Workmans beach is nice , but windy. Will post as soon as I have news. Bill

cooee · Senior Member

Bill

You were right !!

<<The tropical low off the North Queensland coast has been officially upgraded to a cyclone.

About 1.50pm (AEST), the weather bureau said Tropical Cyclone Dylan, a category one storm, was about 235 kilometres north east of Townsville.

Dylan was moving at 14kph and is expected to cross the coast between Lucinda and Proserpine in the early hours of tomorrow morning.

Coupled with king tides earlier today, Dylan has flooded low-lying parts of the region.

The bureau is warning coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville, of a dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and tomorrow.

"The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline," the bureau said.

Townsville and Yeppoon on the Capricorn Coast are among the centres being inundated, and Townsville Council has set up three evacuation centres.

Senior weather forecaster Matt Bass said the storm was tracking further south than first thought.

"At this stage the most likely crossing location is near Ayr, but anywhere between Lucinda and Proserpine could see the cyclone near them," he said.>>

Cooee

-- Edited by cooee on Thursday 30th of January 2014 09:00:30 PM

bill12 · Guru

See, 40 years of being a skipper, and making my own forcasts weren,t wasted, thank god.Tmrow will be the worst day, with biggest tide of the year, and a storm surge happening at the same time.Will ring friends in the morning.The ferrys to Magnetic island stopped at midday. Hope there,s not too much damage. Bill

GaryKelly · Guru

I have no intention of being anywhere near FNQ during the cyclone season but I do have an umbrella in PJ just in case.

bill12 · Guru

Smart GN,s go south during the northern summer. I would go earlier, but have to work.Think I got the timing right this time.Tmrowis the day when the damage is going to be done.Bom says it will cross 100klms nth of Blowen, Cat2, up to 150klms wind,6am tmrow.Will have to ring my uncle at Merinda, just nth of Blowen.Bill

-- Edited by bill12 on Thursday 30th of January 2014 08:33:08 PM