Mike Harding wrote:

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It is interesting; China is doing a lot of sabre rattling currently which may simply be intended to test Biden's backbone. As the USA has a defence treaty with Taiwan there must, if China increases its actions, come a point where the USA reacts if the treaty has any value and it may be where that point lies China is trying to discover.

After Obama allowed them to get away with developing a military base in the Spratly Islands they have become much emboldened but hopefully not enough to enter into war. I should not be surprised to see the Taiwanese shoot down an overflying Chinese aircraft and Goodness only knows what will happen then.

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 That's what I'm thinking China wants. 

We will be at war in the next 12 months, if not sooner. The only reason China has taken over all the reefs and islands, was to have landbased Aircraft carriers. I saw the writing on the wall 5 years ago, and have been telling everyone about it since. I even wrote to the Prime Ministers office suggesting that Australia raise the size of army personelle to 200,000 thousand, and they wrote back and said, my views and worries were unfounded. The last job I did in the army for 12 months was Strategic Defense, and I told them this in the letter, but you know politicians, they know more then qualified practitioners in the art of war.

Their will never be a civil war in China, unless Hong Kong rises up and get's support by others in mainland China. The reason is, the young people in China are extremely Nationalistic and very into the Communist government. Xi, has given them everything they want, and they don't see that they are not really free, because hey, the can leave their country anytime they want for studies,  tourism and business. They have money, and wealth, this is not the norm for communism, it is the exception, so the young don't see a problem with their government and how they believe they are free to live their lives.

I too think war is inevitable. China has its eyes on Australia and why not? We have lots of resources and lots of space. It is frightening.

Tony LEE wrote:

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I don't think there is any treaty that requires the US to put their troops into battle with the Taiwan forces against china. Just requires the US to provide materiel assistance

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 Yes, I believe your correct.

IMHO   Xi will decide if we go to war. God help us. and I'm far from religious.

I don't think there is any likelihood of war with China. I think there will be a fair bit of sabre rattling concerning Taiwan and probably a few shots across the bows but nothing more. The absolute might of the military capability of the USA and its allies would mean total annihilation of China if ever there was a strike against the US mainland. China is dependent on the rest of the world for its oil, minerals and to a large degree its food. With the exception of the Russia, the trading nations it deals with all come under the heavy influence of the USA.

Most of the narrative at the moment is coming from a nervous prime minister and his cabinet mates who are looking at the next election and trying to work out ways to get another term. Nothing like a bit of fear mongering to help the incumbents.

No Mike, I did not mean that. The Chinese have infiltrated Taiwan's airspace regularly for years. They also infiltrate the Philippines' coastal waters regularly. The Russians fly increasingly closer to the UK airspace limits and the UK send warships through the South China Sea. All part of the game.

These regular events are just getting a lot more publicity from the Government at the moment as they have absolutely nothing else going for them.

DMaxer wrote:

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I don't think there is any likelihood of war with China. I think there will be a fair bit of sabre rattling concerning Taiwan and probably a few shots across the bows but nothing more. The absolute might of the military capability of the USA and its allies would mean total annihilation of China if ever there was a strike against the US mainland. China is dependent on the rest of the world for its oil, minerals and to a large degree its food. With the exception of the Russia, the trading nations it deals with all come under the heavy influence of the USA.

Most of the narrative at the moment is coming from a nervous prime minister and his cabinet mates who are looking at the next election and trying to work out ways to get another term. Nothing like a bit of fear mongering to help the incumbents.

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 The absolute might of the US and her allies could not defeat the Taliban. China only lags in the air at the moment, which isn't going to be long before that too is overtaken.

They are no longer a 3rd world country, they are highly trained and eager. The large majority of Chinese believe the should take their place in the world as it's leader.

Living in the past and relying heavily on brute force won't work anymore.

A war against insurgents or guerilla forces is an entirely different concept to two nations at war. The navy of the USA and allies could completely isolate China without the need to land any troops on China's mainland. This would result in no food, oil or other essentials that China does not produce. Any attack on the USA mainland would result in China becoming a carpark.

This is not my guesswork. It is based on various papers prepared by military experts.

About ten years ago we had a chinese student nurse stay with us for six weeks.(her father was a doctor back in China)

We raised the question of Taiwan to her one night....it flicked a switch and we got a ten minute tirade on why Taiwan belongs to China.

They are brainwashed to the Chinese way of thinking. 

Other than that...she was a lovely girl and made great dumplings!!!

Collo.

They have been threatening invasion since Chiang Kai-shek was pushed out by Mao back in 1949. It was then called Formosa and held by the Nationalists as their last bastion.

The Chinese know what would happen of they invaded Taiwan. Not only would they drag the USA into a conflict but they would also have the UK and India plus a few of the NATO forces to contend with. An invasion would result in a complete trade embargo and they rely on the outside world for oil, food and money. They will just play a long game with intimidation and sabre rattling to appease the masses at home to keep themselves in office and to give the military something to do besides beat up their own people. 

They have had since 1949 to do something about it and have chosen not to even in times when the rest of the world probably wouldn't have cared. These days every nation is focused on them.

Buzz Lightbulb wrote:

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 As far as I understand the USA has never said what it would do if Taiwan was invaded. It's never said it would help defend Taiwan against China. 

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If it doesn't then the rest of us had better, very quickly, assume we are on our own with an aggressive China and maybe put some nukes on those new subs... or learn to speak Mandarin....

Mike Harding wrote:

If it doesn't then the rest of us had better, very quickly, assume we are on our own with an aggressive China and maybe put some nukes on those new subs... or learn to speak Mandarin....

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 I don't think that the USA has recognised Taiwan as a country. However, the USA, New Zealand, UK and other countries have agreed to support each other. 

With the Chinese economy on the brink & large sections of the national power grid failing, Xi may be indulging in a bit of the well used political trick of   "look over here"  "look over here", arousing their well grounded Nationalism to divert attention from the mismanagement of their Command Economy.   

Of course our Politicians never do that do they?  (Domino theory, Tampa, Children overboard, We'll decide who comes to our country etc etc).

BTW, with a majority of residents in our street already being of Chinese nationality perhaps the take over of Au is well advanced (of course they all say that they are not from mainland China)  Our friendly Chinese local real estate agent is constantly in touch with an update on the number of (Chinese?) cash buyers with $1m+ in their pockets, that he has waiting to purchase.  They are however, good neighbors & heavily involved in local politics & charities.