Taiwan v China

Cupie · Guru

RE: Taiwan v China

Mike Harding · Guru

Interesting BBC report:

oldbloke · Guru

The latest from Biden.

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-22/biden-says-united-states-would-come-to-taiwans-defence/100560522

Buzz Lightbulb · Guru

oldbloke wrote:
The latest from Biden.

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-22/biden-says-united-states-would-come-to-taiwans-defence/100560522

Yeah, I just read that. Now I'm worried that the USA will drag Australia into another war.

Mike Harding · Guru

War with China is probably inevitable.

As I've said before; you'd better hope the Yanks support us or you had better start learning Mandarin.

Santa · Guru

Mike Harding wrote:
War with China is probably inevitable.
As I've said before; you'd better hope the Yanks support us or you had better start learning Mandarin.

Pretty accurate assessment Mike.

dogbox · Guru

Santa wrote:

Mike Harding wrote:
War with China is probably inevitable.
As I've said before; you'd better hope the Yanks support us or you had better start learning Mandarin.
Pretty accurate assessment Mike.

no one has mentioned north korea they may be the trigger that starts the ball rolling either by accident or by design

peter67 · Guru

dogbox wrote:
Santa wrote:

Mike Harding wrote:
War with China is probably inevitable.
As I've said before; you'd better hope the Yanks support us or you had better start learning Mandarin.

Pretty accurate assessment Mike.

no one has mentioned north korea they may be the trigger that starts the ball rolling either by accident or by design

Dead right dogbox :)

landy · Guru

peter67 wrote:

dogbox wrote:
Santa wrote:

Mike Harding wrote:
War with China is probably inevitable.
As I've said before; you'd better hope the Yanks support us or you had better start learning Mandarin.

Pretty accurate assessment Mike.

no one has mentioned north korea they may be the trigger that starts the ball rolling either by accident or by design
Dead right dogbox :)

Love it Peter 67 biggrin

DMaxer · Guru

There will be no war. The world saw what happened during WW2 and no one has any appetite for that. The best that the Chinese or Russians could hope for in any war would be mutual annihilation given the weapons possessed by either side. The Chinese and North Koreans like to show off their capabilities, more so to quell the unrest in their own populations than to intimidate the USA. The USA on the other hand dont even allow their closest allies an insight into what they possess. Plenty of sabre rattling and chest thumping will be evident but they will not be game to engage them as they know what will happen.

dogbox · Guru

DMaxer wrote:

There will be no war. The world saw what happened during WW2 and no one has any appetite for that. The best that the Chinese or Russians could hope for in any war would be mutual annihilation given the weapons possessed by either side. The Chinese and North Koreans like to show off their capabilities, more so to quell the unrest in their own populations than to intimidate the USA. The USA on the other hand dont even allow their closest allies an insight into what they possess.
Plenty of sabre rattling and chest thumping will be evident but they will not be game to engage them as they know what will happen.

as mentioned previous by accident or design, a third party may be the trigger and we end up with something that was not intended

KevinJ · Senior Member

dogbox wrote:
DMaxer wrote:

There will be no war. The world saw what happened during WW2 and no one has any appetite for that. The best that the Chinese or Russians could hope for in any war would be mutual annihilation given the weapons possessed by either side. The Chinese and North Koreans like to show off their capabilities, more so to quell the unrest in their own populations than to intimidate the USA. The USA on the other hand dont even allow their closest allies an insight into what they possess.
Plenty of sabre rattling and chest thumping will be evident but they will not be game to engage them as they know what will happen.

as mentioned previous by accident or design, a third party may be the trigger and we end up with something that was not intended

Just read "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute, written in 1957. It has exactly the same plot.

Wanda · Guru

DMaxer wrote:
There will be no war. The world saw what happened during WW2 and no one has any appetite for that. The best that the Chinese or Russians could hope for in any war would be mutual annihilation given the weapons possessed by either side. The Chinese and North Koreans like to show off their capabilities, more so to quell the unrest in their own populations than to intimidate the USA. The USA on the other hand dont even allow their closest allies an insight into what they possess. Plenty of sabre rattling and chest thumping will be evident but they will not be game to engage them as they know what will happen.

I tend to agree, hopefully all parties will be thinking the same, not really a lot to gain but one hell of a lot to loose.

Lets hope they remember how well Hitler is remembered in history as well

Ian

Mike Harding · Guru

DMaxer wrote:
The world saw what happened during WW2 and no one has any appetite for that.

We are almost 70 years from the end of World War 2.

Just 21 years after the end of World War 1 the world started World War 2 - I don't think recollection of past events has anything to do with such things.

It may not be all-out war for that would likely have a negative outcome for all but rather a limited war or "Salami Tactics"... Taiwan... South China Seas with some skirmishing with Vietnam and others... northern Australia...?

Yes Minister

yobarr · Guru

Mike Harding wrote:
DMaxer wrote:
The world saw what happened during WW2 and no one has any appetite for that.
We are almost 70 years from the end of World War 2.
Just 21 years after the end of World War 1 the world started World War 2 - I don't think recollection of past events has anything to do with such things.
It may not be all-out war for that would likely have a negative outcome for all but rather a limited war or "Salami Tactics"... Taiwan... South China Seas with some skirmishing with Vietnam and others... northern Australia...?
Yes Minister

Maths not your strong point,Mike? Cheers

DMaxer · Guru

Of course they will have regional issues from time to time Mike, but not mass troop invasions of mainland USA or Australia for that matter. Wars are not fought that way anymore. I was reading just recently where the majority of the USA's nuclear capabilities are located outside of the mainland. Given that they have in excess of 6,000 this is quite concerning to any country foolish enough to try them on. Most of the silos located in Dakota, Nebraska and the central plains have now been decommissioned with the large proportion strategically positioned elsewhere in the world, either on land or at sea,

If one wants an example of the fear that their capabilities generate look no further than the responses from rogue nations and states who had no communications with the USA prior to 9/11 events. Libya, North Korea, Russia, China and Iran couldn't get on the blower quickly enough to let the USA know that they had nothing to do with it. Muammar Gadaffi's call came almost immediately as he knew what would be arriving if they thought his country or regime was directly responsible.

Mike Harding · Guru

Emmmm... I am unconvinced "regional issues" do not constitute a war.

I consider it perfectly possible China may consider a mass troop invasion of northern Australia to be in it's interest - I mean... there would not be much point in bombing it, would there? However gaining the land may be of interest to the Chinese?

There has been a massive increase in patriotic nationalism in China in recent years and I believe this has empowered the leadership to consider China's position in the world's pecking order needs to be raised; combine such with the vast increase of wealth and we have a recipe for an empire emerging.

We are speculating of course Dmaxer but when one looks at China's positions on Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Seas I am not optimistic its intentions are benign.

DMaxer · Guru

Whilst this mass invasion of northern Australia is taking place do you think the US will be standing by watching their Marine base in the NT, their military interests of NW Cape and their who knows what at Pine Gap all go under. Perhaps on their way out here Xis troops might swing by Guam or the Marshalls for a quick hello.

oldbloke · Guru

yobarr wrote:
Mike Harding wrote:
DMaxer wrote:
The world saw what happened during WW2 and no one has any appetite for that.
We are almost 70 years from the end of World War 2.
Just 21 years after the end of World War 1 the world started World War 2 - I don't think recollection of past events has anything to do with such things.
It may not be all-out war for that would likely have a negative outcome for all but rather a limited war or "Salami Tactics"... Taiwan... South China Seas with some skirmishing with Vietnam and others... northern Australia...?
Yes Minister
Maths not your strong point,Mike? Cheers

About as strong as your ability to use the space bar mate.

peter67 · Guru

It was after WW1 that everybody said with conviction "that was the war to end all wars"

dogbox · Guru

yobarr wrote:

Mike Harding wrote:
DMaxer wrote:
The world saw what happened during WW2 and no one has any appetite for that.
We are almost 70 years from the end of World War 2.
Just 21 years after the end of World War 1 the world started World War 2 - I don't think recollection of past events has anything to do with such things.
It may not be all-out war for that would likely have a negative outcome for all but rather a limited war or "Salami Tactics"... Taiwan... South China Seas with some skirmishing with Vietnam and others... northern Australia...?
Yes Minister
Maths not your strong point,Mike? Cheers

if ww1 ended in 1918 and ww2 started in 1939 maybe maths isn't my strong point either but then i never claimed it was

Mike Harding · Guru

Interesting BBC article:

China arms development

DMaxer · Guru

The Chinese are also building houses that remain empty, office buildings without tenants and roads that go nowhere. They have a population of more than one billion and that is what their economy is built on. The fact they are rapidly increasing their military strength does not mean war is about to come, it just means they are rapidly increasing their military strength.

All wars pre 1945 followed a similar pattern of large armies, big battleships and invasions. You do not need to invade a country with troops these days to defeat it. Any hostilities or expansion by China into the free world would be met by a total naval blockade. No food, minerals, oil goes in and nothing comes out. Chinese loans abroad would not be paid and the country would collapse. If their response was to send missiles to another country in the free world then they would become a carpark.

They will continue to argue about Taiwan and several other islands forever. There will be incursions, threats and grandstanding but like the Russians, they know what will happen if they attack the USA or its allies on the mainland of the USA or the mainland of its allies.

I spent a fair amount of time with defence legal teams both here and abroad over the years and got to know quite a few of the personnel. My opinion is based on what they told me. I recall one American telling me that the USA will never forgot the lessons of Pearl Harbour and the fact that their military was allowed to diminish in pre WW2 years due to inward looking policies.

dogbox · Guru

there is also India and china they have some issues over disputed territories that have resulted in hostilities ,that for the most part do not make the front page headlines . what allies would china have in the event of global confict ?

Buzz Lightbulb · Guru

In my opinion China will not invade Australia. It won't need to. It can destroy Australia without invasion.

Xi Jinping has sworn that no other country will control China. He's referring to the invasion of China by the Western countries, Great Britain, Germany, France and I think there were a couple of others. These countries decided to spilt China up into colonies. Honk Kong I think was the last to be handed back to China from that invasion.

I think that the majority of countries do not recognise Taiwan as a country and China sees it as part of China. Xi will defend China (Taiwan) from invasion from foreign countries. That's why Biden's statement is so worrying. It will be fought like Vietnam, Korea and to a lesser extent, Afghanistan. (The latter being just an invasion by USA and its allies.) Two big military powers using a block of land to test their weapons and Australia gets dragged into it.

China is well advanced in quantum computing. It spends billions of yuan on it. China even has a quantum satellite in orbit and that's what they tell the rest of the world. Imagine what they're not telling us.

Quantum computing will get good enough to crack current encryption computing and that will break everything we rely on for secure internet. Who do you think China will test that on? The USA, which will fight back with well advanced technology of its own, or some country that doesn't invest in research and development and so it's so far behind that it probably won't know that its been attacked? That, along with the perceived attacks that Australia has made on China, we're sitting ducks.

The war with China will be fought via cyber attacks on the invading countries. If Australia supports Taiwan's resistance to China's one country two systems policy, not only will China defend Taiwan to Xi's death, but Australia's cyber security is done for.

-- Edited by Buzz Lightbulb on Monday 25th of October 2021 12:22:19 PM

Kebbin · Guru

dogbox wrote:
there is also India and china they have some issues over disputed territories that have resulted in hostilities ,that for the most part do not make the front page headlines . what allies would china have in the event of global confict ?

Your question on allies is answered with the old saying "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" . That would have Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Palestine, Belarus etc enough support that would see China taking Taiwan in a short period of time. The US would not become involved militarily, just sanctions and when that happens China will grow another set. Then with all of that going on Russia would take Ukraine, Georgia and probably Finland,Latvia, Lithuania & Estonia.

Finland has always been in Russia sights and putin wants the soviet block back. Life is going to be perilous the rest of the century as the US is divided and close to becoming a failed state. When that turmoil starts again it will be an ideal time for China to move on Taiwan.

Are We Lost · Guru

I believe China will take control of Taiwan, and it will be quick when it happens. Xi Jinping has said pubicly that it will happen, so will not back down now.

He has to make sure it happens quickly, so the deed is done before any reaction can stop it. Once in place, I can't see US, Australia or anyone for that matter taking any military action against them, despite our commitment to support Taiwan.

Mike Harding · Guru

Are We Lost wrote:
I believe China will take control of Taiwan, and it will be quick when it happens. Xi Jinping has said pubicly that it will happen, so will not back down now.

He has to make sure it happens quickly, so the deed is done before any reaction can stop it. Once in place, I can't see US, Australia or anyone for that matter taking any military action against them, despite our commitment to support Taiwan.

Very, very sadly; I agree.

DMaxer · Guru

They are not going to sneak up on anyone. There is a massive US naval force in the area together with the US forces at Guam and the Marshalls. Add to that the satellite surveillance and allied intelligence. This has been going on since 1949. All show to keep their own under control.

Mike Harding · Guru

And the Chinese won't like this either:

Oz buys pacific telco